A Regression-Based Resilience Assessment Model for Raw Material Supply Chain Performance of Zambian Fast-Moving Consumer Goods Manufacturers

  • Aaron Magwenzi
  • Bupe Getrude Mwanza
Keywords: Resilience Capacities, Disruption Risks, Performance, Regression Analysis, FMCG, Zambia


Globally, the fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) manufacturers are constantly looking for resilience to sustain the performance of their raw material supply chains. Prior research suggests that the demand for resilience has been created by the increased vulnerability of supply chains to disruption risks due to high dependence on single suppliers of critical raw materials. This paper aims to develop a regression-based resilience assessment model for Zambian FMCG manufacturers' raw material supply chains. It identifies the disruption source risks and resilience capacities, examines their effect on raw material supply chain performance and develops multiple regressions to assess the resilience required to sustain the performance. The study adopted a descriptive design and utilized structured questionnaires to collect data from a sample of 95 manufacturers in Lusaka through stratified sampling. Regression analysis through IBM SPSS version 25 was used to analyze the data. The findings revealed that disruption source risks have a negative effect on the performance of Zambian FMCG raw materials supply chains, while resilience capacities have a positive effect. The study observed that sustained performance of raw material supply chains is possible when disruption risks and resilience capacities in the resilience assessment model are matched to achieve resilience balance.